Thursday, December 3, 2009

VRG: Bullish on Gold

We have been following the world financial crisis pretty closely over the past several years. Contrary to popular consensus, that the crisis was unforeseen and unpredictable, we anticipated the current turmoil, and positioned well in advance. From our perspective, the mainstream financial press, although slickly packaged for mass consumption, has largely missed all the indicators and is currently playing a game of "catch-up".



We've been following gold for quite a while, waiting for the mainstream financial press to catch on to the gold bull market which has been under way for the past eight years. It seems the recent spike in gold has prompted nearly every financial news outlet to suddenly focus in on gold as a hedge in an uncertain economic environment. As gold moves closer to the center of attention and the herd mentality kicks in, we're anticipating a bubble-effect to emerge. However, this bubble will likely be much larger than previous bubbles we've seen in tech stocks and real estate. The coming gold bubble is of an order of magnitude larger than anything we've seen thus far. As bubbles go, this one has the elasticity to expand over the next decade and beyond. Consider the following factors; (which we discuss further in following blog posts)

Global in scope- As the world's reserve currency continues to weaken, nearly all governments must unload their holdings of US dollars and migrate toward stable assets. Although other currencies provide safety in the short term, most of the major currencies will in effect suffer from similar destabilization. Gold is historically and universally acknowledged as the reliable store of wealth, especially during times of economic uncertainty.

Supply and demand- The world's entire gold market is a small fraction of the aggregate financial markets, which is based on a fiat monetary system. A minor shift of capital from the world's stock exchanges into gold can have a massive effect on gold prices, simply because the supply of gold bullion is finite. We are seeing the beginning of a shift of capital out of paper and into hard assets. As the herd mentality kicks into gear, we'll see millions of new buyers in the gold market.

These extraordinary conditions create some remarkable upside opportunities for investment in gold and other precious metals. We'll examine these opportunities in detail over the next several blog posts. Here's a summary of what to expect:

Primer to Gold Investment - We'll discuss in detail investor's options to capitalize on the upward trend in the precious metals markets, including;
  • Purchasing physical gold, Bullion, numismatic coins, jewelry.
  • How to hold gold assets - possession vs. intermediary
  • Purchasing through a brokerage house
  • Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
  • Mining stocks
Primer on Mining - As gold prices rise and market supplies become exhausted, we anticipate pressure on production levels. Mining companies will likely see investment capital and ample incentive to further develop existing mines, bring new mines into production, as well as the exploration of new assays. Our analysts have studied the mining sector and the world's gold bearing regions. We'll provide our insights into the mining industry and highlight potential opportunities where they exist. We'll also provide many links to current information, to assist your own research.

Analysis of Mining Stocks - Unlike the dot com stock frenzy of the late 1990's, mining companies cannot be created overnight. Tremendous work and due diligence must be performed prior to taking a mining company public. We've spent the time researching and analyzing the financial statements, rock sampling and drilling reports of numerous mining and exploration companies. We'll be highlighting the standouts, the up-and-coming, and the unknowns alike.

As the mainstream financial news outlets continue to spoon-feed their editor-approved content, we at Valencia Research Group strive to remain well ahead of the information curve. We will continue to honor our commitment of providing in depth research, objective* analysis and uncovering opportunities in today's ever-changing economic landscape. We invite you to join us, by following our blog posts and subscribing to our equity report distribution list. We also encourage your participation through our comments section following the posts.

Steven Breitbach, COO
Valencia Research Group
Valencia, California
661/287-9420

*Disclaimer: From time to time, Valencia Research Group produces issuer sponsored research reports of which VRG receives cash compensation. However, VRG holds no interest in the subject company stock. Issuer sponsored reports assist in creating efficiency in the market by raising the visibility of sound companies overlooked by investors. VRG provides full disclosure of all issuer sponsored publications and makes clear distinction between issuer sponsored and independently published reports. For information on hiring Valencia Research Group please visit our website.


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